Every NBA official since 2003-04 and how the game goes when they're on the floor. Click a column heading to sort.
Every NBA game since the 2003-04 season, every official on the floor, every box score. What the numbers say about referees and the teams and players in front of them, and where nothing stands out at all.
Total fouls called per game with the official on the floor, against the league average in the same seasons. This is the strongest signal in the data. It's stable and it's large, and it says nothing about fairness, only about how much contact gets called.
| Official | Games | Fouls/game | vs league | z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Donaghy | 274 | 46.80 | +2.25 | +5.2 |
| Luis Grillo | 323 | 45.80 | +2.05 | +5.0 |
| Jim Clark | 437 | 45.90 | +1.95 | +5.4 |
| Mitchell Ervin | 664 | 41.40 | +1.76 | +6.4 |
| Dick Bavetta | 754 | 44.20 | +1.28 | +4.4 |
| Eric Lewis | 1236 | 42.50 | +1.12 | +5.4 |
| Scott Foster | 1619 | 42.40 | +1.07 | +6.1 |
| CJ Washington | 454 | 40.30 | +0.99 | +3.1 |
| Official | Games | Fouls/game | vs league | z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Javie | 507 | 40.90 | -2.85 | -8.9 |
| Ron Garretson | 1123 | 40.70 | -1.55 | -7.3 |
| Jack Nies | 395 | 42.60 | -1.45 | -4.1 |
| Brandon Adair | 361 | 38.10 | -1.28 | -3.9 |
| Eric Dalen | 943 | 38.90 | -1.25 | -5.4 |
| David Jones | 816 | 41.20 | -1.20 | -4.6 |
| Marc Davis | 1623 | 40.00 | -1.20 | -6.7 |
| Ken Mauer | 1253 | 41.00 | -1.10 | -5.6 |
Home fouls minus away fouls, against the league's own lean in the same seasons (home teams get called for slightly fewer fouls everywhere). Negative means the official calls even fewer on the home team than the league does.
| Official | Games | Home fouls − away | vs league | z | Home FTA edge vs league |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Garretson | 1123 | -1.46 | -0.67 | -4.5 | +0.59 |
| Kevin Cutler | 913 | -1.15 | -0.67 | -3.8 | +0.74 |
| Sean Corbin | 1266 | -1.15 | -0.53 | -3.8 | +1.15 |
| James Capers | 1471 | -1.13 | -0.49 | -3.6 | +0.74 |
| Jenna Schroeder | 277 | -1.13 | -0.90 | -3.1 | +0.86 |
| Dedric Taylor | 663 | -0.98 | -0.56 | -2.8 | +0.86 |
| Joe Forte | 476 | -0.16 | +0.69 | +2.8 | -1.07 |
| Ben Taylor | 747 | +0.07 | +0.50 | +2.8 | -0.54 |
| J.T. Orr | 757 | -0.00 | +0.46 | +2.5 | -0.92 |
| Mark Wunderlich | 460 | -0.30 | +0.55 | +2.4 | -1.15 |
| Olandis Poole | 555 | -0.29 | +0.51 | +2.3 | -0.69 |
| Brett Nansel | 444 | +0.19 | +0.52 | +2.3 | -1.53 |
Technical fouls per game as ESPN logs them for both teams combined (this count includes defensive three-second calls, so it runs higher than the tally you see in league discipline reports). The veterans top the list.
| Official | Games | Techs/game |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Donaghy | 274 | 1.96 |
| Luis Grillo | 323 | 1.84 |
| Bernie Fryer | 258 | 1.83 |
| Joe Forte | 476 | 1.83 |
| Bob Delaney | 546 | 1.80 |
| Jim Clark | 437 | 1.80 |
| Eddie F. Rush | 615 | 1.75 |
| Jack Nies | 395 | 1.74 |
Home-team win rate with the official on the floor, against the league's home-win rate in the same seasons and game type. Across 105 officials with 200+ games, chance alone would put about five beyond ±2 and almost none beyond ±3.
| Official | Games | Home win % | Expected | z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phenizee Ransom | 375 | 49.3% | 55.5% | -2.4 |
| Zach Zarba | 1579 | 55.5% | 58.3% | -2.3 |
| CJ Washington | 454 | 51.8% | 56.1% | -1.9 |
| Bennie Adams | 997 | 56.5% | 59.3% | -1.8 |
| Joe Crawford | 839 | 57.4% | 60.5% | -1.8 |
| Mousa Dagher | 356 | 50.8% | 55.5% | -1.8 |
| James Capers | 1471 | 62.7% | 58.7% | +3.2 |
| Sean Corbin | 1266 | 61.9% | 58.5% | +2.5 |
| Gary Zielinski | 935 | 63.3% | 59.6% | +2.3 |
| Kane Fitzgerald | 812 | 62.1% | 58.3% | +2.2 |
| Mark Ayotte | 1001 | 62.3% | 58.9% | +2.2 |
| Bennett Salvatore | 722 | 64.5% | 60.7% | +2.1 |
Games where one team's final record that season was at least 15 percentage points better (a dozen wins over a season). League-wide the worse team won 22.8% of 14,228 such games. Officials with 150+ of them:
| Official | Games | Underdog wins | z |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Clark | 202 | 30.7% | +2.7 |
| Violet Palmer | 318 | 28.0% | +2.2 |
| Scott Wall | 555 | 26.7% | +2.2 |
| John Butler | 166 | 29.5% | +2.1 |
| J.B. DeRosa | 191 | 27.7% | +1.6 |
| Phenizee Ransom | 204 | 27.5% | +1.6 |
| Sean Corbin | 598 | 25.4% | +1.6 |
| Matt Boland | 571 | 25.2% | +1.4 |
| Leroy Richardson | 524 | 17.7% | -2.7 |
| Brent Barnaky | 500 | 18.4% | -2.3 |
| Tommy Nunez Jr. | 229 | 16.6% | -2.2 |
| James Williams | 433 | 18.7% | -2.0 |
| Brandon Adair | 167 | 16.8% | -1.9 |
| Kevin Cutler | 457 | 19.3% | -1.8 |
| Zach Zarba | 739 | 20.4% | -1.5 |
| Joe Forte | 243 | 18.9% | -1.4 |
Home-team win rate in games decided by three points or fewer, officials with 400+ games. League-wide home teams win a little over half of these.
| Official | Games | Close games | Home wins in them |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Cutler | 913 | 13.8% | 40.5% |
| Mitchell Ervin | 664 | 17.6% | 42.7% |
| Bob Delaney | 546 | 17.4% | 43.2% |
| Joe Forte | 476 | 16.0% | 43.4% |
| Ken Mauer | 1253 | 12.3% | 44.2% |
| Bennett Salvatore | 722 | 17.5% | 63.5% |
| Ben Taylor | 747 | 13.3% | 62.6% |
| Aaron Smith | 498 | 17.3% | 61.6% |
| Jonathan Sterling | 400 | 16.2% | 61.5% |
| Jason Phillips | 1019 | 15.5% | 59.5% |
Playoff games where one team could close out the series. League-wide the trailing team survived 38.6% of 352 such games. Officials with 15+ clinch games, most extensions first. Scott Foster, the official the nickname belongs to, is at the bottom of this table.
| Official | Clinch games | Series extended | Rate | z |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Guthrie | 27 | 15 | 55.6% | +1.8 |
| Monty McCutchen | 27 | 15 | 55.6% | +1.8 |
| Zach Zarba | 45 | 22 | 48.9% | +1.4 |
| Pat Fraher | 21 | 11 | 52.4% | +1.3 |
| James Williams | 23 | 11 | 47.8% | +0.9 |
| Ed Malloy | 31 | 14 | 45.2% | +0.8 |
| Scott Foster | 48 | 17 | 35.4% | -0.5 |
| Brian Forte | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | -2.0 |
| Eddie F. Rush | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | -2.0 |
Every pairing with 30+ games. Expected wins come from the team's own record that season at that venue (home or away), so a good team with a good record is expected to win, and the question is only whether it won more or less than that with this official. 2,369 pairings; 85 beyond ±2 (chance: about 108), 6 beyond ±3 (chance: about 6.4). That's the spread luck produces.
| Official | Team | Games | Wins | Win % | Expected | z | Foul diff vs team norm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natalie Sago | NYK | 30 | 6 | 20.0% | 54.4% | -4.0 | -0.11 |
| Bennie Adams | CLE | 56 | 20 | 35.7% | 56.2% | -3.3 | -0.01 |
| Marat Kogut | TOR | 76 | 26 | 34.2% | 51.4% | -3.2 | +0.78 |
| Brian Forte | LAC | 77 | 29 | 37.7% | 54.8% | -3.2 | -0.10 |
| Joe Crawford | WAS | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 46.1% | -3.2 | -0.02 |
| Eric Dalen | SAS | 68 | 30 | 44.1% | 61.1% | -3.1 | +0.06 |
| Marc Davis | BOS | 123 | 59 | 48.0% | 59.5% | -2.8 | +0.59 |
| Eli Roe | HOU | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 54.9% | -2.7 | +0.66 |
| Ron Garretson | DAL | 79 | 32 | 40.5% | 54.6% | -2.7 | +0.49 |
| Tony Brothers | LAL | 103 | 40 | 38.8% | 51.0% | -2.7 | +0.33 |
| Monty McCutchen | DET | 67 | 23 | 34.3% | 49.6% | -2.7 | -0.80 |
| Pat Fraher | LAL | 85 | 35 | 41.2% | 53.7% | -2.5 | +0.57 |
| Official | Team | Games | Wins | Win % | Expected | z | Foul diff vs team norm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Jones | CLE | 49 | 35 | 71.4% | 53.3% | +2.9 | -0.99 |
| Brent Barnaky | GSW | 59 | 45 | 76.3% | 60.5% | +2.8 | +0.27 |
| Bill Spooner | DAL | 56 | 41 | 73.2% | 56.5% | +2.7 | +0.86 |
| Haywoode Workman | WAS | 50 | 29 | 58.0% | 40.3% | +2.7 | +0.03 |
| Leon Wood | MIL | 74 | 46 | 62.2% | 48.0% | +2.6 | +0.19 |
| Kevin Cutler | LAC | 81 | 61 | 75.3% | 61.5% | +2.6 | -0.38 |
| Jacyn Goble | CHI | 45 | 28 | 62.2% | 44.0% | +2.5 | -0.25 |
| Marc Davis | CHI | 117 | 72 | 61.5% | 50.4% | +2.5 | +0.35 |
| Karl Lane | MEM | 57 | 40 | 70.2% | 54.6% | +2.5 | +0.16 |
| Mark Ayotte | TOR | 66 | 44 | 66.7% | 52.3% | +2.5 | -0.98 |
| Eli Roe | GSW | 38 | 26 | 68.4% | 50.8% | +2.4 | -0.13 |
| Ken Mauer | MEM | 86 | 53 | 61.6% | 49.7% | +2.4 | +0.48 |
Pairings with 50+ games where the team's foul differential (own fouls minus opponent's) with this official differs most from the team's normal differential that season. Negative means the team got called for fewer fouls than usual with this official on the floor.
| Official | Team | Games | Foul diff | vs team norm | FTA diff | Win % | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Zielinski | UTA | 68 | -1.75 | -2.07 | +1.73 | 58.8% | 53.7% |
| Ben Taylor | BKN | 52 | -1.54 | -2.05 | +2.64 | 51.9% | 43.7% |
| Josh Tiven | IND | 81 | -1.53 | -1.84 | +1.64 | 54.3% | 53.4% |
| Curtis Blair | PHX | 66 | -1.08 | -1.73 | -0.85 | 51.5% | 48.1% |
| Ron Garretson | BOS | 68 | -0.62 | -1.71 | +0.08 | 41.2% | 53.4% |
| Curtis Blair | OKC | 69 | -1.70 | -1.70 | +3.78 | 69.6% | 62.3% |
| Leroy Richardson | CHA | 62 | -2.95 | -1.61 | +5.10 | 35.5% | 40.5% |
| Tre Maddox | DAL | 54 | -2.74 | -1.56 | +1.74 | 51.9% | 49.9% |
| Gary Zielinski | HOU | 63 | +2.00 | +2.21 | -1.05 | 54.0% | 58.7% |
| Pat Fraher | CHA | 93 | +0.82 | +1.94 | -1.45 | 37.6% | 40.0% |
| Dick Bavetta | LAL | 56 | +0.39 | +1.90 | -1.32 | 64.3% | 58.9% |
| Bennett Salvatore | BOS | 57 | +2.79 | +1.67 | -3.58 | 50.9% | 54.9% |
| Derek Richardson | CLE | 65 | +1.11 | +1.62 | -1.88 | 56.9% | 51.3% |
| Eric Lewis | MIA | 95 | +1.22 | +1.61 | -2.50 | 55.8% | 57.1% |
| Joe Crawford | CHI | 60 | +2.56 | +1.60 | -5.33 | 41.7% | 48.9% |
| David Guthrie | IND | 80 | +2.13 | +1.58 | -3.86 | 56.2% | 50.7% |
Every player-official pairing with 25+ games of 8+ minutes. Free throws, personal fouls and points are per 36 minutes and measured against the player's own rates in the same seasons. 18,313 pairings. Beyond ±3: free throws 42, fouls 56, points 38; chance alone would give about 49.4 on each. Fouls run a touch high; free throws and points land right on chance. No player-official pairing in 23 seasons looks like more than variance, the famous ones included.
| Official | Player | Games | FTA/36 | Own rate | z | PF/36 | Own rate | z | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Williams | Jimmy Butler III | 36 | 5.75 | 8.15 | -3.5 | 1.65 | 1.40 | +1.3 | 55.6% |
| Pat Fraher | Robin Lopez | 40 | 1.66 | 3.47 | -3.4 | 4.25 | 3.91 | +0.7 | 55.0% |
| Derrick Stafford | Pau Gasol | 47 | 3.74 | 5.32 | -3.2 | 2.09 | 2.34 | -1.1 | 55.3% |
| Brian Forte | Gerald Green | 29 | 0.73 | 2.46 | -3.2 | 3.15 | 3.57 | -0.9 | 62.1% |
| John Goble | DeMar DeRozan | 59 | 5.18 | 6.71 | -3.0 | 2.51 | 2.40 | +0.7 | 52.5% |
| John Goble | Luka Doncic | 38 | 6.63 | 8.40 | -3.0 | 2.33 | 2.38 | -0.2 | 63.2% |
| Marc Davis | Paul Pierce | 49 | 4.55 | 6.08 | -3.0 | 2.99 | 3.07 | -0.3 | 53.1% |
| James Williams | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 47 | 7.73 | 9.66 | -3.0 | 3.31 | 3.30 | +0.0 | 61.7% |
| Marc Davis | Jusuf Nurkic | 30 | 3.02 | 5.07 | -3.0 | 4.30 | 4.67 | -0.9 | 56.7% |
| Monty McCutchen | JJ Redick | 51 | 2.06 | 3.33 | -3.0 | 2.20 | 2.30 | -0.4 | 58.8% |
| Official | Player | Games | FTA/36 | Own rate | z | PF/36 | Own rate | z | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Tiven | Thabo Sefolosha | 25 | 3.89 | 1.60 | +5.3 | 2.77 | 2.73 | +0.1 | 52.0% |
| Eddie F. Rush | Mike James | 25 | 4.77 | 2.60 | +3.6 | 3.96 | 3.18 | +1.7 | 48.0% |
| Aaron Smith | Aaron Gordon | 31 | 5.90 | 3.96 | +3.6 | 2.27 | 2.41 | -0.4 | 45.2% |
| Bennett Salvatore | Tony Parker | 51 | 6.11 | 4.56 | +3.5 | 2.12 | 1.92 | +1.0 | 60.8% |
| Tyler Ford | Bogdan Bogdanovic | 32 | 3.47 | 2.02 | +3.5 | 3.16 | 2.93 | +0.7 | 59.4% |
| Scott Wall | Ish Smith | 26 | 3.17 | 1.64 | +3.5 | 2.29 | 2.50 | -0.5 | 61.5% |
| Jim Clark | Ben Wallace | 29 | 5.35 | 3.50 | +3.4 | 2.26 | 2.13 | +0.5 | 65.5% |
| Scott Foster | Joe Smith | 27 | 5.63 | 3.46 | +3.4 | 4.21 | 4.08 | +0.3 | 44.4% |
| Courtney Kirkland | OG Anunoby | 33 | 3.84 | 2.48 | +3.3 | 3.40 | 2.92 | +1.5 | 57.6% |
| Eric Lewis | Kevin Garnett | 46 | 5.32 | 3.92 | +3.3 | 2.59 | 2.91 | -1.2 | 56.5% |
| Official | Player | Games | FTA/36 | Own rate | z | PF/36 | Own rate | z | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Foster | Rudy Gobert | 58 | 6.36 | 5.75 | +1.3 | 4.44 | 3.28 | +4.9 | 67.2% |
| Eric Lewis | Anderson Varejao | 28 | 4.99 | 3.81 | +1.9 | 6.04 | 4.19 | +4.0 | 50.0% |
| Zach Zarba | Enes Freedom | 31 | 4.00 | 4.16 | -0.2 | 5.48 | 3.77 | +4.0 | 71.0% |
| Courtney Kirkland | Pascal Siakam | 42 | 4.08 | 4.44 | -0.8 | 4.37 | 3.21 | +3.9 | 50.0% |
| Monty McCutchen | James Harden | 42 | 7.99 | 8.55 | -0.9 | 3.66 | 2.77 | +3.8 | 66.7% |
| Scott Foster | Jusuf Nurkic | 31 | 4.80 | 5.10 | -0.4 | 6.34 | 4.87 | +3.7 | 45.2% |
| Sean Wright | Jerami Grant | 36 | 5.17 | 4.93 | +0.4 | 4.31 | 3.11 | +3.5 | 27.8% |
| Joe Crawford | Ricky Davis | 25 | 1.99 | 3.22 | -2.4 | 3.61 | 2.45 | +3.5 | 48.0% |
| Jim Clark | Erick Dampier | 28 | 3.21 | 3.83 | -1.0 | 6.36 | 4.64 | +3.5 | 71.4% |
| Ken Mauer | Zaza Pachulia | 65 | 4.39 | 4.74 | -0.7 | 6.02 | 4.79 | +3.4 | 44.6% |
| Official | Player | Games | FTA/36 | Own rate | z | PF/36 | Own rate | z | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zarba | Ramon Sessions | 36 | 5.71 | 5.43 | +0.4 | 1.09 | 2.26 | -3.6 | 52.8% |
| Eric Dalen | Kyle Lowry | 50 | 3.58 | 3.90 | -0.8 | 2.41 | 3.26 | -3.5 | 58.0% |
| Olandis Poole | Keith Bogans | 27 | 1.81 | 1.85 | -0.1 | 1.77 | 3.28 | -3.4 | 55.6% |
| Mike Callahan | Rashard Lewis | 48 | 2.88 | 3.27 | -1.0 | 1.87 | 2.69 | -3.3 | 62.5% |
| Jack Nies | Morris Peterson | 25 | 2.21 | 2.59 | -0.7 | 1.82 | 3.21 | -3.3 | 56.0% |
| Eric Lewis | Ben Gordon | 47 | 4.20 | 3.89 | +0.6 | 2.21 | 3.13 | -3.2 | 31.9% |
| Rodney Mott | Andre Miller | 61 | 3.87 | 4.20 | -0.8 | 1.91 | 2.58 | -3.1 | 50.8% |
| Eric Dalen | P.J. Tucker | 27 | 1.37 | 1.56 | -0.5 | 2.02 | 3.13 | -3.1 | 74.1% |
| Derrick Collins | Marcus Morris Sr. | 40 | 4.15 | 2.89 | +2.7 | 2.11 | 3.11 | -3.1 | 47.5% |
| Marc Davis | Derrick Favors | 41 | 4.39 | 4.00 | +0.7 | 2.79 | 3.83 | -3.0 | 61.0% |
274 games, 2003-10-29 to 2007-05-12. The one official known to have bet on games and influenced them. Any method worth trusting should notice him without being told who he is.
1,619 games over 23 seasons, 209 of them playoffs, the most of any active official in this data.
| Season | Games | Playoff | Home win % | Expected | Fouls/game | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-04 | 68 | 5 | 66.2% | 62.2% | 42.80 | 43.20 |
| 2004-05 | 69 | 5 | 62.3% | 60.2% | 44.70 | 45.40 |
| 2005-06 | 65 | 3 | 60.0% | 60.7% | 46.90 | 45.60 |
| 2006-07 | 78 | 7 | 62.8% | 59.7% | 44.70 | 44.40 |
| 2007-08 | 84 | 12 | 59.5% | 62.1% | 43.60 | 42.50 |
| 2008-09 | 69 | 0 | 62.3% | 61.0% | 44.00 | 42.10 |
| 2009-10 | 72 | 0 | 56.9% | 59.4% | 43.50 | 41.70 |
| 2010-11 | 65 | 0 | 60.0% | 60.1% | 43.70 | 41.30 |
| 2011-12 | 64 | 14 | 59.4% | 60.6% | 40.50 | 39.80 |
| 2012-13 | 83 | 14 | 55.4% | 61.6% | 43.50 | 40.50 |
| 2013-14 | 80 | 13 | 47.5% | 57.8% | 42.80 | 41.80 |
| 2014-15 | 80 | 13 | 50.0% | 57.8% | 43.00 | 41.30 |
| 2015-16 | 74 | 13 | 63.5% | 60.3% | 41.20 | 40.90 |
| 2016-17 | 81 | 12 | 59.3% | 58.2% | 41.60 | 40.40 |
| 2017-18 | 74 | 13 | 62.2% | 60.1% | 42.20 | 40.30 |
| 2018-19 | 76 | 11 | 64.5% | 58.8% | 42.80 | 42.20 |
| 2019-20 | 49 | 1 | 51.0% | 54.7% | 42.20 | 41.20 |
| 2020-21 | 55 | 12 | 63.6% | 54.5% | 40.90 | 39.00 |
| 2021-22 | 56 | 13 | 58.9% | 55.6% | 39.60 | 40.10 |
| 2022-23 | 72 | 14 | 66.7% | 58.0% | 39.80 | 39.90 |
| 2023-24 | 76 | 14 | 64.5% | 55.0% | 39.20 | 37.60 |
| 2024-25 | 54 | 7 | 50.0% | 54.7% | 38.90 | 37.70 |
| 2025-26 | 75 | 13 | 56.0% | 55.5% | 42.00 | 40.40 |
2013-14 and 2014-15 are his two low years for home teams (47.5% and 50.0% against 57.8% expected); 2022-23 and 2023-24 run the other way (66.7% and 64.5% against 58% and 55%). Over 23 seasons a spread like that is ordinary.
| Team | Games | Wins | Win % | Expected | z | Foul tilt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 119 | 45 | 37.8% | 47.9% | -2.4 | -0.07 |
| ATL | 100 | 38 | 38.0% | 48.7% | -2.3 | +0.05 |
| DAL | 127 | 63 | 49.6% | 55.1% | -1.3 | +0.28 |
| NJ | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 44.9% | -1.2 | +0.10 |
| MIA | 140 | 74 | 52.9% | 56.9% | -1.0 | +0.02 |
| MEM | 90 | 41 | 45.6% | 50.6% | -1.0 | +0.28 |
| Team | Games | Wins | Win % | Expected | z | Foul tilt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 98 | 56 | 57.1% | 50.2% | +1.5 | +0.04 |
| MIL | 114 | 66 | 57.9% | 51.8% | +1.4 | +0.30 |
| BOS | 136 | 82 | 60.3% | 56.3% | +1.0 | +0.13 |
| NYK | 110 | 53 | 48.2% | 45.0% | +0.7 | -0.16 |
| MIN | 92 | 45 | 48.9% | 45.6% | +0.7 | -0.05 |
| HOU | 95 | 58 | 61.1% | 57.8% | +0.7 | -0.24 |
Regulars (40+ games, 24+ minutes) and how their teams did with him on the floor against their teams' own records. 164 players qualify; chance would put about four beyond ±2 on each end.
| Player | Games | Win % | Expected | z | FTA z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 43 | 32.6% | 51.4% | -2.5 | +0.5 |
| Chris Paul | 79 | 46.8% | 59.4% | -2.4 | +0.3 |
| Devin Harris | 63 | 38.1% | 51.2% | -2.3 | +0.9 |
| Jimmy Butler III | 42 | 38.1% | 54.8% | -2.2 | -1.3 |
| Kyle Korver | 77 | 46.8% | 57.9% | -2.1 | +2.4 |
| P.J. Tucker | 56 | 46.4% | 58.2% | -1.9 | +0.1 |
| Jameer Nelson | 51 | 37.3% | 48.9% | -1.8 | -1.5 |
| Eric Gordon | 43 | 37.2% | 49.0% | -1.7 | -1.0 |
| Monta Ellis | 56 | 37.5% | 48.0% | -1.7 | -1.9 |
| Darren Collison | 41 | 39.0% | 51.3% | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| Player | Games | Win % | Expected | z | FTA z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMarcus Aldridge | 61 | 68.9% | 57.7% | +1.9 | -1.1 |
| Wesley Matthews | 63 | 65.1% | 54.4% | +1.8 | -0.0 |
| Kevin Durant | 90 | 66.7% | 59.0% | +1.6 | -0.1 |
| Jayson Tatum | 48 | 70.8% | 60.3% | +1.6 | +0.0 |
| Courtney Lee | 45 | 57.8% | 47.5% | +1.5 | +0.3 |
| Jason Kidd | 49 | 65.3% | 55.4% | +1.5 | +0.6 |
| Rudy Gobert | 58 | 67.2% | 57.8% | +1.5 | +1.3 |
| Jason Terry | 60 | 66.7% | 58.2% | +1.5 | -0.1 |
| Josh Hart | 46 | 65.2% | 55.3% | +1.4 | -0.1 |
| LeBron James | 142 | 70.4% | 65.2% | +1.4 | +0.5 |
| Player | Games | PF/36 | Own | z | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudy Gobert | 58 | 4.44 | 3.28 | +4.9 | 67.2% |
| Jusuf Nurkic | 31 | 6.34 | 4.87 | +3.7 | 45.2% |
| Kobe Bryant | 46 | 2.85 | 2.28 | +3.0 | 54.3% |
| Malik Beasley | 40 | 3.02 | 2.13 | +3.0 | 60.0% |
| Tobias Harris | 65 | 3.02 | 2.40 | +2.9 | 47.7% |
| Fred VanVleet | 25 | 3.56 | 2.62 | +2.9 | 64.0% |
| Player | Games | FTA/36 | Own | z | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Smith | 27 | 5.63 | 3.46 | +3.4 | 44.4% |
| Vince Carter | 75 | 5.18 | 4.08 | +3.0 | 44.0% |
| Josh Smith | 40 | 6.07 | 4.58 | +2.9 | 50.0% |
| Mike James | 26 | 4.25 | 2.75 | +2.5 | 42.3% |
| Steven Adams | 41 | 5.16 | 3.84 | +2.5 | 63.4% |
| Patty Mills | 52 | 2.57 | 1.66 | +2.5 | 65.4% |
269 games since 2003 had a free-throw gap of 25 or more, 0.93 per 100 games. Officials with 300+ games, most frequent first, with the count you'd expect from their share of games.
| Official | Games | Lopsided games | Expected | Per 100 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Donaghy | 274 | 7 | 2.50 | 2.55 |
| Luis Grillo | 323 | 7 | 3.00 | 2.17 |
| Joe Forte | 476 | 9 | 4.40 | 1.89 |
| Lauren Holtkamp | 375 | 7 | 3.50 | 1.87 |
| Joe DeRosa | 484 | 9 | 4.50 | 1.86 |
| Greg Willard | 615 | 11 | 5.70 | 1.79 |
| Steve Javie | 507 | 9 | 4.70 | 1.78 |
| Dan Crawford | 1054 | 18 | 9.80 | 1.71 |
| Date | Away | Home | Away pts | Home pts | Home FTA − away | Home fouls − away | Official | Official | Official |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-11-19 | LAL | NYK | 104 | 83 | -41 | +15 | Mark Wunderlich | Tim Donaghy | Tony Brown |
| 2016-01-20 | DET | HOU | 123 | 114 | -41 | +24 | Mark Ayotte | Kevin Cutler | Ken Mauer |
| 2010-01-29 | CLE | IND | 94 | 73 | -39 | +16 | Bennett Salvatore | Marc Davis | Haywoode Workman |
| 2014-03-03 | MIN | DEN | 132 | 128 | -39 | +15 | Gary Zielinski | Kevin Cutler | Marc Davis |
| 2006-01-02 | PHX | NYK | 133 | 140 | +38 | -14 | Tom Washington | Tim Donaghy | Robbie Robinson |
| 2013-11-07 | LAL | HOU | 99 | 98 | +37 | -19 | Matt Boland | John Goble | Dan Crawford |
| 2006-02-25 | CHI | PHI | 102 | 108 | +37 | -19 | Derrick Stafford | Ron Olesiak | Mark Ayotte |
| 2010-03-31 | MIL | CLE | 98 | 101 | +36 | -17 | Tony Brothers | Eddie F. Rush | Leroy Richardson |
| 2012-01-12 | ORL | GSW | 117 | 109 | -36 | +20 | Greg Willard | Sean Wright | |
| 2019-11-05 | IND | CHA | 120 | 122 | +35 | -17 | Mark Lindsay | Scott Foster | Justin Van Duyne |
Fouls and free throws fell for a decade, jumped with the 2018-19 freedom-of-movement emphasis, then settled lower again. Home court has faded from 62% to about 55%.
| Season | Games | Fouls/game | FTA/game | Home win | Techs/game | OT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-04 | 1272 | 43.1 | 48.5 | 62.1% | 1.67 | 5.9% |
| 2004-05 | 1314 | 45.4 | 52.2 | 60.2% | 1.70 | 6.5% |
| 2005-06 | 1319 | 45.7 | 52.7 | 60.8% | 1.69 | 7.3% |
| 2006-07 | 1309 | 44.4 | 52.2 | 59.5% | 1.85 | 6.9% |
| 2007-08 | 1316 | 42.2 | 50.0 | 61.0% | 1.53 | 5.0% |
| 2008-09 | 1223 | 42.1 | 49.5 | 61.0% | 1.57 | 5.6% |
| 2009-10 | 1231 | 41.7 | 49.1 | 59.4% | 1.51 | 5.8% |
| 2010-11 | 1137 | 41.3 | 48.5 | 60.1% | 1.72 | 6.9% |
| 2011-12 | 1075 | 39.4 | 45.1 | 59.3% | 1.54 | 6.4% |
| 2012-13 | 1315 | 40.0 | 44.9 | 61.4% | 1.35 | 6.4% |
| 2013-14 | 1315 | 41.6 | 47.3 | 58.0% | 1.32 | 6.7% |
| 2014-15 | 1310 | 40.9 | 46.1 | 57.6% | 1.15 | 6.4% |
| 2015-16 | 1317 | 40.8 | 47.0 | 59.4% | 1.29 | 6.2% |
| 2016-17 | 1311 | 40.3 | 46.9 | 58.3% | 1.30 | 5.6% |
| 2017-18 | 1314 | 40.1 | 43.9 | 58.6% | 4.9% | |
| 2018-19 | 1312 | 42.0 | 46.3 | 59.1% | 1.27 | 5.4% |
| 2019-20 | 986 | 41.2 | 45.9 | 55.0% | 1.26 | 6.4% |
| 2020-21 | 1130 | 38.7 | 43.5 | 54.3% | 1.08 | 5.0% |
| 2021-22 | 1304 | 39.5 | 43.9 | 54.7% | 1.30 | 4.4% |
| 2022-23 | 1299 | 39.9 | 46.8 | 57.9% | 1.24 | 6.3% |
| 2023-24 | 1295 | 37.5 | 43.3 | 54.5% | 1.32 | 4.8% |
| 2024-25 | 1318 | 37.4 | 43.5 | 54.6% | 1.04 | 4.9% |
| 2025-26 | 1321 | 39.9 | 47.0 | 55.5% | 1.06 | 4.5% |
Source: ESPN's public game summaries, pulled game by game for every regular-season and playoff game from October 2003 through the 2026 Finals (29,043 games with a crew listed; a few hundred early games have no officials on record and are left out of referee tables). Officials come from the game info block; team totals and every player line come from the box score. Team foul counts are the sum of player fouls (ESPN's team field is blank for 2017-18, so technicals are missing that season).
Baselines: home-win rate is compared with the league's rate in the same season and game type. Team pairings are compared with the team's own win rate that season at that venue. Player pairings are compared with the player's own per-36 rates that season, weighted by his games with that official. Playoff series state is rebuilt from the schedule.
What the method can't see: which crew member made which call, foul type, the score when a call came, or whether a call was right. It measures tendencies and outcomes. A referee who worked a lot of Spurs games in 2005 will look Spurs-friendly on raw wins; the baselines above exist to strip that out.
The full tables (referees.csv, referee_x_team.csv, player_x_referee.csv, extender.csv, underdogs_by_ref.csv, lopsided_fta_by_ref.csv, team_seasons.csv, season_trends.csv, ref_pairs.csv) are saved in your Downloads folder under runs-and-whistles-referee-data.
They're formulas, not opinions, so treat them as a starting point.
Timeouts. By rule, a period's two mandatory timeouts are simply the first two taken, whoever takes them. The league only imposes one, at the next dead ball, when nobody has called one by 6:59 or by 2:59. Those imposed ones are the TV timeouts and don't count for or against the coach. Every other timeout was his decision, including early ones that end up charged as mandatory, and timeouts taken to challenge a call are listed as challenges.
Coaching starts at 72 and moves on: whether timeouts called during an opponent run stopped it (next two minutes), whether the first possession out of a timeout scored, the best lineup's plus-minus, bench points against the other bench, and the final margin. Challenges add or subtract when the feed logs them. Small samples are weighted down, so one timeout doesn't swing a grade much.
Officiating has two parts. Consistency: how much the foul rate swings between six-minute windows. Evenness: foul differential plus half the free-throw-attempt differential. Offensive fouls, technicals and deliberate late fouls by the trailing team are left out of both. A change point is flagged when the foul rate before and after some moment differs by 1.5+ per window; a streak is four or more straight calls on the same team.
"Lean" means the numbers leaned that way. It doesn't separate a slanted whistle from a team that simply drove more, so read it next to paint points and free-throw rate.
The write-up is assembled from the same numbers by fixed rules, not by an AI, so it can't invent anything and it costs nothing to run. Every sentence traces back to a play in the feed.